Chart Stalkers January 2008

[Kittykins]

Firstly - big for Sookie. Not much I can say, but I really hope your DH gets out today (makes it sound like he's in prison - he probably feels that way!) and you get a more relaxing weekend, with some sleep...

Secondly - CB23 - you BD'ed am the day after, so it's very likely that will be within 12 hours of the egg being released. Plus as the others said, you may have some sperm still hanging around!

As for Cheri22, well, I don't want to upset anyone, but I think it's a load of BS, to be quite frank. She picks a month - so 8.3% chance immediately - then trebles her chances by saying it could be conceive, find out or birth month, then further improves them by tailoring them to personal circumstances and statistical probability. Oh, and adds in boy or girl - well she's got a 1 in 2 chance of getting that right! If she knows you had a m/c, for example, and knows when that was, and how long before that you were TTCing, she's got some pretty good info. Similarly if she knows you already have 2 kids, born 2 years apart, she'll know you don't have too many problems conceiving.

I had a look at her results, and to be honest, the 65% success rate or whatever it was, is about what you'd expect from chance and the above factors, especially as it seems to be counted a successful prediction if she gets the gender right but not the month. I'm sure she believes in her psychic spirit guides, but statistically, I don't think it's any more accurate than a few calculations would predict.

I'm sure I could create some kind of excel spreadsheet that would allow different statistical formulae to be applied - I'd need age, how long TTC, details of m/cs, details of existing children... We'd have to agree on the parameters, but it would be really interesting to see if the chartstalkers could match Cheri's predictions. Of course, I'd have to charge you all London prices - that would be £10 per prediction, please!

and yes, I am the most cynical person on the planet...

 

[choklatemunky]

Kitty - I was thinking that myself - that by saying Birth month, conceive month or month you find out in she was actually covering quite a lot of the months of the year really.....I just dont have the brain to work it out properly....

I thought also about trying to guess months for people to see if I was more accurate than her or at least as accurate....but then totally forgot about it!

Anyway - the good thing is we all seem pretty determined to prove her wrong as none of us want to wait too long for our BFPs!

Come on the chartstalkers!

 

[Loola]

Kitty I think you have probably hit the nail on the head with Cheri predictions. But i still hope shes right about my Feb 16th testing date! Well actually I hope shes wrong and I get a BFP on Feb 1st.

 

[CB23]

oh and I forgot to say:

Kitty sorry she got you, please can you have a normal cycle this time you deserve it

and Sookie I hope you are OK and your hubbie is able to escape and get better at home

 

[Chrissy1]

Yup....cheri22 talks a load of rubbish. Just think how much money she's made just out of us lot on here!!!

 

[choklatemunky]

I can just imagine her now....counting out all her coins humming tunes to herself about what a load of mugs we all are

 

[CB23]

Am glad we're all agreed on that everyone else always seemed so positive about her I thought I'd have a punt, but I'm now determined its just twaddle.

Chrissy I'm keen a spring baby and summer on maternity leave too I'm not prepared to wait that long though

 

[Trudyscrumptious76]

Kitty I'm so glad you were able to say what I've been thinking all this time! I live outside london, how much would you charge me? Don't forget mates rates!!!

 

[Chrissy1]

Am glad we're all agreed on that everyone else always seemed so positive about her I thought I'd have a punt, but I'm now determined its just twaddle.

Chrissy I'm keen a spring baby and summer on maternity leave too I'm not prepared to wait that long though

I know....we've missed it for this year but I've decided that if I don't get the spring baby that I'll have to take a whole year just to make sure I get a summer at home!!!

 

[Kittykins]

ok, I'm going for a punt on March as conceive, find out or give birth for CB23.



I'm basing this on:

Age: 35 - likely to conceive within 12 months of starting TTC.

Previous m/c - demonstrates fertility, likely to shorten 12 months to 9.

M/c in September - more than 3 months ago, no need to factor in 3 months waiting time.

TTC 4.5 months to date - deduct from 9 months = likely to conceive within next 5 months.

First baby: high chance of late arrival (in month after EDD)

No previous children: no adjustments to be made.

Current month: January. Conception in next 5 months:

conceive Feb, discover Mar, EDD Nov, poss arrival Oct/Nov.
conceive Mar, discover April, EDD Dec, poss arr Nov/Dec.
conceive Apr, discover May, EDD Jan, poss arr Dec/Jan.
conceive May, discover June, EDD Feb, poss arr Jan/Feb.
conceive June, discover July, EDD Mar, poss arr Feb/Mar.


So I'm plumping for March because Claire's already said she doesn't have much hope for this month(!), and to be in with a chance of March coming up trumps, I need her to conceive either in February or March (both within 6 months of m/c) or in June, possibly July. I nearly went for February, but Feb only has 28 days and since Claire's likely to ovulate around the 21st Feb, she wouldn't get her BFP until March.

Of course, it's still a load of rubbish, but I'd say I'm in with as good a chance as Cheri! Oh, and I'm going for girl. Just for a laugh.

Anyone else want to guess for other stalkers? Or improve upon my prediction for CB23? I'm sure there are refinements to be made and some of my assumptions may be wrong.

Just call me Mystic Kitty...

 

[Kittykins]

oh, and I'm going for June for myself.

 

[Loola]

Mystic Kitty!!! That is brilliant!! I want one!!

I am 29, OH is 28. I have been pregnant before but that was 4 years ago and with a different partner! We have been trying for 9 months.

 

[choklatemunky]

Mystic Kitty (and now for the science bit....) That saying from the advert has just popped into my head.....

Kitty are you doing everyones or are we all supposed to be trying to do one each for one of the people here?

 

[reallyoldmum]

Kitty you really are a gem Are there no limitations to your talents??????

I would like March please as Dave is 40 on the 26th!! and I am 42 on the 8th and I really dont want to be giving birth when I am 43!!! It will be just 3 months since my loss and also just under the 12 month mark - although I was very fertile 21 and 18 years ago!!!!

 

[Kittykins]

Loola - May, girl. I'm afraid my spirit guides MinnyHaha and Phooldyu haven't given me much guidance on her character, though they did say you'll find that she is cheeky, and optimistic, quite talkative, but laid-back. Although... wait... no... they're telling me that if the baby isn't conceived in May, or found out about in May, or born in May, but is a girl, you'll probably call her May. I hope that helps.

I'm getting the hang of this!


Choklatemunky - I think everyone can do everyone's! I'd be very happy to get 5 different predictions, it increases the chance one of them will be right!

We'll have to keep a log of all the predictions, and see who makes the most accurate ones

 

[choklatemunky]

OMG this is hilarious - its really cheered me up - I think its the first time I've laughed out loud all week!

Ok - well what details should we be putting on then - just how old we and dh are - whether we have conceived before and how long we have been trying? If there are any other things which might affect ttc are we to say about them or not? (just so its an even playing field!)

PS. Kitty - MinnyHaha and Phooldyu! I think I just nearly wet myself laughing!

 

[Loola]

Its brilliant Kitty! It really is!

 

[choklatemunky]

Righto here goes,

I'll start with Loola -

I think March is your month. I think it is more likely to be find out month or conceive month, but Im gonna do what Cherri does and bung possible birth month in there too just for good measure!

I want to call my spirit guides Cyril and Bob - only because I have an image of two old guys sitting chatting over a beer - egging each other on saying " tell her that mate, that'll do" and it makes me laugh - so Im going to rely on what those two tell me!

I think it's going to be a girl.

 

[Kittykins]

Who's had a Cheri prediction? What does Cheri22 ask for? I know she asked someone for m/c info etc, and I'm guessing she asks about other kids because so many of the predictions mention 'after this one you will have one more to make three in total' or whatever. Age, DH age, and how long TTC are what she mentions on the website, I think.

I bet a lot of women write to her with all sorts of details - 'Hi Cheri, hope you can help, we've been trying for 6 months but as I have PCOS and DH has low sperm motility, it's been really difficult, we'd love to know if we're going to have any children. I'll be 28 in May, DH will be 69 in June. Please could you reply to my work email address as I'll be working in Geneva for the next 3 months and won't be able to read my home email? Work email is [email protected]'

Even without MinnyHaha and Phooldyu, I'd have a pretty good idea that no sex for Feb, Mar and April means no conception, birthdays in May and June plus return = shagfest, and you can infer all sorts of other things from the little details. Like DH probably doesn't have much stamina, she's obviously well-educated/intelligent/well-paid, access to good medical advice, kiddy unlikely to grow up to be a dustman. Though the combination of radiation and a 79-yo father suggests kiddy's unlikely to grow up at all... but you know what I mean!


ok, I won't be on for a little bit, but I will check in later!

 

[choklatemunky]

I really can't remember what she asked me without looking on my email! I'll have a check!